UAE: Industrial outlook

A substantial part of tomorrow's favourable outcome within the oil and gas industry of the UAE will be closely linked to the short-term economic diversification efforts of the country, principally investment and growth in the non-hydrocarbon sectors. The most significant economic success that UAE has experienced in the previous 5 years has been adroitly recreating the conditions of a secure investment climate, which was negatively impacted by the immediate consequences of the global financial crisis.

In 2013 the economy of UAE grew by more than 5%, heavily being supported by the steadily increasing oil exports of the country. In 2014 year this positive trend merely stuck to the trend to take the UAE that much in proximity to its goal of increasing production of oil to 3.6mn barrels per day (b/d) by the year 2019. But, as recent economic research consultants have persuaded, focus and investments on the non-hydrocarbon sectors, mainly the non-oil sector, will be crucial to the country's short-term growth, especially since global supply, due to unconventional production, is expected to slightly increase in the future. Keeping in mind the non-oil foreign trade for the UAE, the nation's efforts are starting to pay dividends, as non-oil trade touched Dh256 billion in 2014 (which is $ 69.7 billion USD).

By 2015, it has been forecasted by BMI that global oil prices will reach a peak, which will begin a pricing cycle that is moderately deflated and that will mostly be kept in status quo by the increase in unconventional supply and sustained conventional output - presuming no major disruption in supply. Thus, the coming 2-3 years will be crucial for the UAE to create robust revenue from the prevailing high prices with the requirement to diversify economically. We expect consistent growth in oil and gas production during the course of the period we forecasted. Stronger attempts at expanding energy efficiency, efforts in waste reduction, and swelling natural gas production will be crucial to restricting the UAE's import needs as consumption continues to race ahead of demand. This is the prevailing view of the industrial outlook in the UAE.


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